Regression to the mean!

Target Word: DENIM
Typical Wordle Word Construct: 2 Vowels and one or more compound consonants (seen with >50% frequency)
Today’s Wordle Word Construct: A-Typical; 2 vowels (E, I); no compound consonant
# Of Guesses: 3.8 WordleBot average per Marc McLaren*; 5for WordleGuru ☹

Seed Word: SOARE
Seed Word Revelations:1 vowel (E); but not its position
# Of Possible Solutions after the Seed Word: Far too many ☹

Second Word: UNITY
Since most Wordle words have two or more vowels, we needed to search for I, U and Y.
Revelations from the 2^nd word: 1 vowel (I) and 1 consonant (N), but not their positions
# Of Possible Solutions after the Second Word: 16, including one set of orthographic neighbor words (MINED, FINED, DINED, LINED)

It was time to deploy the EnotE strategy.  I could not think of an elimination word that would eliminate 15 of the 16 possibilities. I chose BLING as the second-best option that I could come up with.

Third Word: BLING
It eliminated 9 of the 16 but left me 7 to deal with.  The 7 are DENIM, FINED, MINED, DINED, NIXED, VIXEN and WIDEN.
Revelations from the 3^rd word: No new revelations in terms of letters in the target word; we did learn that the target word didn’t include B, L or G.
# Of Possible Solutions after the third Word: 7; I had to come up with yet another elimination word.  I chose MINED and it did the job.

Fourth Word: MINED
Revelations from the 4^th word: All five letters in the target word.
# Of Possible Solutions after the 4^th Word:1 – DENIM

EnotE (Eliminate-not-Enumerate) Strategy deployment: This Wordle is not a showcase example of the power of the EnotE strategy.

Hindsight: BLIND would have been a better option instead of BLING, since only two of the 16 words have a G.
Also, I in the 3^rd position (in BLING) didn’t add any value, since we already knew that there is no I in the 3^rd position.

Gutfeel: After the 3^rd word, my gutfeel was that today’s target word is DENIM.  I didn’t go with my gutfeel since I am “risk averse” and didn’t want to have to find yet another elimination word.  Even though MINED and DENIM are anagrams, I thought DENIM would not be as effective an elimination word as MINED. I didn’t investigate thoroughly.

Final thoughts: Wordle outcome has a lot to do with luck, not just skill. It’s clear that LadyLuck was not on my side today.

Also, any probability-based process ultimately regresses to the mean.  My mean score is 4.1.  I was due for a 5 after a couple of 3’s I had recently.

© 2022 Ashok Gupta All rights reserved.
Wordle and WordleBot are trademarks owned by the New York Times.

*The WordleBot score I refer to comes from Tom’s Guide by Marc McLaren.  Marc writes his post at around 7 AM U.K. time.
https:  //www.tomsguide.com/news/what-is-todays-wordle-answer#section-previous-wordle-answers

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

My other work you may find interesting

I write Rhyming Prose (Prose that rhymes). My work in this area can be found on my website, Rhyming Prose — … when a poem won’t do it!

I have also started writing free-verse poems. My work in this area can be found on my website, Budding Poets Corner – Poet Laureates of Tomorrow